In a few days the British people will vote on leaving the European Union. The outcome of the referendum is just as uncertain as the extent of the political and economic consequences for the country itself, for Europe, and the whole world. The “Brexit" is only one of many geopolitical risks, however, that managers and executives are worrying about these days. There is also the unresolved Ukraine conflict and the sanctions against Russia, the ongoing Greek crisis, the refugee crisis and the unstable situation in the Middle East, the latent threat of terrorist attacks, and the growing threat of national bankruptcies in South America.

Scenario Planning with SOLYP3

Wednesday, 06. November 2013

In times of constant flux, the ability to anticipate change in the business environment early on and respond to it quickly and in creative ways has become an important source of competitive advantage. Scenario planning is a proven method to increase a company’s agility. While scenarios may not be the crystal ball allowing us to predict the future with 100 percent accuracy, they do help us to look at the future in a systematic fashion, to challenge our assumptions about what may lie ahead, and prepare for a range of plausible futures.

An important message which I took home after the last meeting of the Horváth Strategy Network was: coherent scenario planning is a key factor for corporate success! Why is that? Well, let´s define first what scenarios are...